The chances of getting selected in the H-1B lottery depends on the number of registrations received compared to the annual cap. The annual H-1B cap is 85,000 visas, of which 65,000 are for regular and 20,000 for US master's degree holders. In 2025, 470,342 eligible registrations were submitted as per USCIS data, which meant the selection rate was roughly 18 to 20. So on average, your chance of being picked is around 1 in 5, though it changes yearly depending on how many applications USCIS receives.